10 Predictions for 2010-2019

perry marshallville 10 Predictions for 2010 2019

This is a real sign on I-75 in Georgia.

1. In 2010, Google AdWords will announce a procedure for “hearings and fair trials” for banned advertisers. This will enable them to play “Good Cop-Bad Cop” with you if your accounts get shut down.

2. Twitter will get sold to a larger company for less than the $500 million they turned down from Facebook in 2009.

3. The next rage in pay per click is cookie-ing visitors on your site and then having targeted contextual ads “stalk your prospects” on other sites as they surf the Internet. Jonathan Mizel will cover this extensively in a January 29 teleseminar.

4. By 2014 the newspaper will be drastically different than it is now. Most local papers will have vanished; large pubs will consolidate down to just a few like the New York Times, USA Today and the Wall Street Journal. Sorry, but there’s no need for 200 different newspapers to all be running the same stories from the wires; it’s duplicate content. Meanwhile a minority of high-traffic bloggers will be identified as doing better research with better reporting and less bias than the traditional media.

5. The music industry is headed in the same direction. The bands that succeed during the next 10 years will be the ones who figure out how to connect directly to their audience via social media and direct marketing. Recently I had a conversation with a recording artist whose advance for making a CD has shriveled from $50K+ down to $15K now, because piracy and digital distribution are shrinking the pie. He can’t depend on them to bring him an audience anymore. (Does that sound at all familiar?) Neil Peart of Rush said essentially the same thing, reporting they want to do an album in 2010 but the record company won’t pay for it. The band is now in search of some other mechanism. I predict that membership and continuity models are the future of the music industry.

6. There will always be demand for excellent content, regardless of what happens to TV networks, record companies, etc. Case in point: DVD and iTunes sales of TV series like “24″ and “Lost” are strong, because those shows are superbly produced. I bought the first four seasons of 24, myself. The worst place to be in media is in the “expensive bureaucratic mediocre middle.”

7. I gave away some Amazon Kindles for Christmas this year, and electronic books are most definitely on the rise. Electronic readers are awesome, they’ll become the norm, and the future is not bright for traditional printing and publishing models. However… excellent magazines and books will NEVER disappear. Ever.

8. The traditional HTML website site hand-crafted by an HTML editor and uploaded via FTP is fast becoming a relic, replaced by Content Management Systems and platforms like WordPress and Joomla.

9. There is a small, vocal minority of people that insist that in biology, evolution is entirely purposeless and random. This crowd dominates the current academic scene and cooks up anti-scientific theories like “Junk DNA.” My professional experience in our fast-evolving, “darwinian” online world tells me, evolution is supremely intelligent, NOT random. The intellectual Berlin Wall of 19th century Darwinism will crack in 2013. A 21st century version of evolution is coming, one that doesn’t sneer at religion. I blogged about this last week.

10. Wikipedia will silence its critics. Obviously it’s immensely practical and it’s worked, having entirely replaced the traditional encyclopedia. However, vandalism is a constant problem for some categories. Wikipedia has always had a reputation for smearing controversial people and topics. But they’re cleaning up, and for the most part doing an excellent job. I made a donation for the first time the other day and I think Wikipedia has made a huge contribution to the speed of getting research done. Nothing has done more for bringing the Open Source movement to the masses.

Happy New Year, and here’s to you in your mission to advance in your own corner of the world during this digital decade.

Perry Marshall

What do YOU predict? Post your thoughts in the comment box below…

About the Author

Entrepreneur Magazine says: "Perry Marshall is the #1 author and world's most-quoted consultant on Google Advertising. He has helped over 100,000 advertisers save literally billions of dollars in Adwords stupidity tax."

He is referenced across the Internet and by The New York Times, The Washington Post, USA Today, the Chicago Tribune and Forbes Magazine.

Last 5 Posts by Perry

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Posted by Perry on January 1st, 2010. Filed in Not on Homepqage. Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Follow responses thru Comments RSS. Follow responses thru Comments RSS.

Comments on 10 Predictions for 2010-2019 »

  • Wow! Thanks Perry for the always intriguing insight of Perry Marshallville! I think you are right on as usual. Glad good books will never disappear!

    Paula McKinney

  • Deborah says:

    Thanks for an insightful list. Number 5 was an eye opener. Jonathan Coulton used to be a programmer but quit to become a singer-songwriter who now makes $5000 a month selling his own songs, like Code Monkey. He blogs and communicates extensively with his fan base.

    • Jom says:

      Well, seriously…
      If artists only get like 2 bucks or less from all the dvds they sell and the rest of the pie goes to the agencies and production of the physical thing itself, then most likely the normal evolution of this topic, is bye bye agencies and most musicians will have it done digital and accessible via mp3 or ‘mp10′ under a membership site like Perry stated. then they just have to go out and work their butt off doing concerts and get the real cash, but that is where musicians in general are getting their income already, not from the cds but from the live events.

      José

      • Perry says:

        Jom,

        That’s exactly it. I’m not a music industry insider but I seriously doubt even a firmly established world-class band like Rush makes more than maybe $3 or so from a CD. I just don’t see why they need a record company any more at all.

        Quick & dirty math: They go on tour, do 60 concerts with 10,000 fans each and generate $30 million of ticket sales from 600,000 fans. That’s $50 per ticket. And I know those numbers are roughly correct.

        If they sold a $3 per month membership to half those fans (and not to any others) that would generate almost $1 million per month of revenue. Plus you don’t need a record company to get physical distribution. You just need distributors.

        I can’t remember exactly where that Neil Peart comment was, I think it was on his website. But he said he prefers writing music and working in the studio to going out on the road. Rush could be 2X as prolific as they are now, all that music would have an audience, and the few hundred grand they need to cut studio albums would be modest compared to the revenue.

        One of the problems with this is that the band has to come out and ask their fans for money, rather than being able to hide behind a label. They have to pitch their fans on joining. Most musicians are fairly uncomfortable with this. But when you cut the middle man out, there’s less money that needs to be asked for in the first place, and the band owns all the copyrights themselves and they don’t have any more fights with A&R departments and producers about how “radio friendly” their songs have to be.

        The Tommy Lee comment on this page is also very interesting.

        Perry

        • I am not so distressed over the fact that music artists don’t make very much from their CD’s and other recorded media. I think there will come a day when they will give it away for free and make money on the live performances. The amount of money made in a live performance is so over the top crazy (like a band really deserves $30 mil to play a 2 hour gig) that it more than evens out. Just think, these artists should consider themselves lucky that it doesn’t cost them anything but the studio costs to get their music distributed to the masses which is, in essence, simply priming the public for the concert tour coming up later. The losers, of course will be those artists who want to remain in the studio and not go out on the road.

          The real work in the music business is in the live performances. This is where the real paydays should be anyway. I am a seasons subscriber to the Boston Lyric Opera and have been for years. Most of the music performed at the Opera is in the public domain. If other artists would see the opera artform as a model of the future, where all music art becomes pretty much in the public domain as soon as people start sharing it with each other, then they would see the only money to be made is in the live performances anyway. There is a reason why an artform where all the art is in the public domain isn’t dead and that’s because you can’t replace the experience of the live performance with anything you can burn on cd.

          • Perry says:

            Fred,

            Most CD’s are made at a loss and the real money is made on the concerts.

            In the information business, people think it’s a high margin high profit product, but most of the money is spent on customer acquisition and the real business comes from seminars, subscriptions and back-end stuff.

            In the movie industries, most movies lose money running in the theaters and get into the black from DVD sales.

            That said, the amount of piracy and illegal downloading that goes on does serious damage to the availability of new music. If you’re U2 you can go on a worldwide tour and make $100 million. But if you’re a smaller artist – one that’s just big enough to have a contract with a record label – a worldwide tour may not be feasible. Your fans are spread too thin to make a significant amount of money in each city. If people could pay for your music but don’t…. then you just won’t make it.

            Which is to say, make it a practice of paying for your music. That money does buy you something in the long run, even if you could get it free. Yes, Beethoven’s 5th symphony is in the public domain and it’s awesome, but if you want more music, you get it a lot faster if somebody pays for it.

  • Mick says:

    Good list Perry. Here’s a few more from my side of the world here in New Zealand.

    There will be an increase in pay per “filter” services. A paid for – human moderated content filtering system that allows you to get less content (but more of the good stuff)

    Measured Digital branding will grow through the use of smart Adwords content network campaigns and view through conversions.

    Pay as you go online media campaigns and services will challenge traditional media companies and channels.

    “Neutral” 3rd party – question based cpc marketing campaigns will be increasingly used to engage with potential customers, and cut through the advertising clutter.

    As always – it’s going to be a year about doing 4 things well.

    1. Squeezing as many visitors out of a diversified Acquistion Strategy
    2. Converting as many visitors into leads and customers.
    3. Retaining and Engaging with Customers Frequently through an ongoing conversation.
    4. Measuring and optimising.

    Have a Great 2010.

    Cheers
    Mick

  • Hi Perry – interesting stuff. Not sure if I agree about the Kindle. I think the future is less gadgets, not more. Kindle reminds me of Laser Disks in the 90′s. Really cool, but quickly replaced by superior technology.

    The biggest problem with the Kindle is that 90% of people don’t actually read the books they buy, so you gotta assume they enjoy the process of BUYING books a zillion times more than actually reading them. And a shelf full of stuff is much more fun than a hard drive full.

    I think some type of interactive, mixed media book will replace the current best-sellers… like “choose-your-own-adventure” on crack with access to author and other readers. But that’s probably going to take more than a year to happen:)

    Lucas
    YOGABODY

    • Perry, you’ve done it again mate. A column about predictions has ‘evolved’ into a discussion about creationism v natural selection. Let me not be the last complex organism to make a comment. I am interested to see where it goes from here. I will be checking “religiously”.

  • Books, mags and some newspapers will always be around. Remember people back in the early-mid 2000 were predicting the demise of the malls because of online shopping? Didn’t happen. Mall building actually increased. Slow now, because of the recession.

    Remember this: People are social creatures. They have to congregate. They have to go to bookstores and coffee shops. I love gadgets, but I love the shop atmosphere more and holding real reading materials in my hand is way more attractive :)

    John
    unplain dot com

  • Mike says:

    Well, the Evolution is the ultimate direct marketing copywriter who relentlessly tries and tests every possible mutation. Apparently every one of us carries about 60 new mutations that our parents did not have. And with 6 billion people, every possibility gets to be tested at least on 12 people. And it happens a thousand times faster than we thought. God was not mentioned in this case because it was not necessary.
    Happy New Year to all.

  • Interesting predictions Perry.
    I like #4 that many newspapers may disappear.I hope so.
    The complete lack of effort by so called professional journalists today should be punished since they are simply regurgitating the main stream media’s disease of politically correct garbage.
    I’ll go one step farther and say most of these folks should be fired or fined with their fear monegring and constant lies and lies of ommission.
    I don’t even allow news on in my house which my kids now finally realize I’m serious.
    I tell them hey if it gets bad enough Grandma will call. (Yes my Mother in law)

    Anway Perry thanks for leading those of us who “will until.”

  • Thomas says:

    Hey Perry,

    Ha-ha-hah! Good list, but this won’t take a decade to complete. For goodness sake, #8 is already done, check it off your list. I have made a brand new business and support three families out of doing exactly what you described.

    Merry New Year.

    Thomas

  • Steve says:

    Perry,

    I believe that you are dead-on about the music industry. Savvy musicians (or band managers) will definitely be moving toward continuity and membership in the coming years. Possibly as soon as May 2010. I’ve been expressing this belief to some of my musical peers for sometime now and they all think I’m crazy. Please note however that all of the naysayers are also the ones who still firmly believe that a record deal is what they “need” to break out. Being a do-it-yourselfer myself, I believe that record deals are something that will cost bands more in the long run than they will ever provide and therefore a become long-term liability. I myself will be moving towards a continuity model for my band’s future releases. I’ll keep you posted on my results, my friend.

  • Joshua says:

    Funny about the sign. I was driving back to Atlanta over the holiday break and took a picture on my iphone and sent it to you. Seems you already found it :) Crazy.

  • I’m surprised no one has made a prediction on the profound impact that always on high-speed internet access in the palm of your hand on a mobile device nearly as powerful as your desktop computer that is with you at all times will have.

    If this past decade was the digital revolution then I think this coming decade will be the mobile revolution.

    With 4 times as many mobile phones as PCs in the world, the ramifications are quite significant and potentially much more disruptive to some industries than this first digital revolution has been.

    The iphone has less than 5% market share of the entire mobile phone market worldwide yet over a billion apps were downloaded from itunes in the 1st 9 months. Those are adoption (i.e. disruption) rates we’ve never seen before…

    -Teddy Garcia

  • Sean says:

    I was like yeah, this is true, this is true, and then #9, wtf, he went religious on us lol. Dude, you were doing so well on your forward predictions, and then you went backwards.

  • DR NET says:

    Excellent Insights Perry. One that you did not touch on which I was quite surprised is the rise of mobile Advertising. I believe we are positioned perfectly to see an absolute explosion into the mobile market.

    Are we going to see google come out with an adwords for mobile phones? I would not be surprised exspecially with the new NEXUS Phone About to be unvieled

    http://www.khabrein.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31017&Itemid=62

    Is this the end of 2 year contracts with the mobile market? I sure hope so. We are the only country in the world that has these stupid force fed contracts that control us….

    That’s my other big prediction. The End of Cell Phone Contracts as we know it. And who better to end it then Google?

    Go Go Google Gadget :)

    Oh, and Don’t forget the launch of Google Wave. This is sure to be a HUGE hit as businesses can finally centralize their social media insanity that we have now.. :)

    Ok so I just gave 3 :)

    Dr NET

  • Jake B. says:

    I like the implicit suggestion behind almost all of Perry’s predictions: that the world won’t end in December 2012, as some apocalyptic types are espousing, lol.

    -Jake

  • Jude Mayall says:

    Hi Perry,

    With so much content coming thru on my email list, sometimes I think it’s a losing battle what to read. But your stuff is good and I look forward to your predicitions coming true.

    It’s interesting about the music buisness comments, my partner doesn’t have a record contract but sells his music as he plays and maintains that it is a great way to go, as well as having a lot more contact with the people who like to listen to his music, which in the long-run is a lot more rewarding.

    In 2010 I will make myself self-sufficient with my website, it will be a “scorcher”.

    To you and your family have a wonderful 2010

    Jude Mayall

  • Mackenzie says:

    Perry,

    There is a reason why you are only a handful of internet people I still follow each week. Thanks for your insight. I got 2 tidbits of action items from your list today.

    Happy New Year !

  • Brendan says:

    I like most of your stuff, and this isn’t bad, but it’s pretty-much what every other pundit is saying, with a couple of minor “tweaks” here and there. None of it is news, or otherwise unexpected if you’re either not comatose or not still calling it “the Google.”

  • Fantastic ! Post and thread,thanks. I see the Kindle and Sony,Barnes & Noble etc. becoming more iPhone, like. there will have ads and esp video (You Tube in a TV raised generation is to strong). Also the average person only reads 1 book a year. The average millionaire reads 103 books a year. Kindle will reach for the masses.

    I am a follower of Jesus the Christ. It’s about time they gave up on the religion of Darwinism. I do not have enough faith to believe in it. Maybe they will realize their is no missing link.

    It was the Big Bang theory. God spoke–AND–BANG ! It happened ! <

  • Well put Perry.

    May be a link to last year’s predictions would be handy to see how well your last year’s forecast filled out ; )

    I will definitely agree the standard html site/page is now part of internet history, I code all my sites with CMS like Joomla, WordPress and the like these days.

    Cheers,

    Greg

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