You might have some memory of Admiral James Stockdale. He was the guy who was Ross Perot’s Vice Presidential candidate in ‘the US 1992 election.
He didn’t fare so well as a VP candidate, but he was quite an impressive military man. He was former president of the Naval War College and was the highest ranking officer in the dreaded “Hanoi Hilton” in Viet Nam.
He spent eight years in Hanoi and was tortured numerous times by his captors.
Mr. Thomas Barnett relates:
“Stockdale tells the story of the optimists who never survived their time in Hanoi, simply because they clung far too much to their dreams of release and in doing so couldn’t handle the brutal realities of what it took to survive the day to day.
“So instead of dealing with the here and now realistically, they tended to cling to the hope that they’d be home by whatever the next holiday was, and when that day came and went, their spirit would be diminished by that measure.
“Over time, they died because their spirit was extinguished by reality.”
Stockdale’s explains his “paradox” this way:
“You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end (which you can never afford to lose) with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”
Stockdale was really describing the flagrant abuse of ‘positive thinking.’
And you know what? A lot of entrepreneurs are really just too optimistic. Worse yet, the business opportunity pitchmen exploit this and sell ridiculously unrealistic plans to starry-eyed people.
What a shame.
Then people flip to the other side, which is the CNN version of the world: Everything is hopeless. All you can do is talk your doctor into putting you on prescription drugs.
Both extremes are recipes for crash and burn.
I seriously doubt anything you ever face in business will be as dreadful as the Hanoi Hilton. Still, nothing can be worse for you than to walk into battle with a plastic sword and helmet, and then get cut down with tanks and machine guns.
You wanna survive… then thrive?
Here are some wise precautions that will prepare you for adversity and ensure your success:
- Assume that vendors will be slower than they promise – and that you may have to stand on their heads to get things done (not that you should accept this if it’s going on though!)
- Assume click prices and advertising rates are going to go UP, not down
- Assume Google’s gonna slap you sooner or later, even if you’ve got the most righteous product on God’s green earth
- Assume your best source of customers could dry up with no advance notice
- Assume the buying cycle is longer than you think it is, not shorter
- Assume it’s gonna get harder to raise capital, not easier
- Assume some unforeseen problem, like a product defect, legal challenge or financial setback may pop up
- Assume your top 3 plans might not work out, so have #4 and #5 in place too
Once you’ve assumed all that and planned for it – NOW you can look forward to great success, knowing that you’ve anticipated virtually every obstacle and can make it through. Because when you put those constraints on your plan, you’ll NEED to add a magic ingredient.
This will force your creativity to add one.
One of my Roundtable Members (Roundtable is my private $12K per year mastermind group) asked me about the slippery slope of making bolder promises in his sales copy, which as they got more unrealistic, would also be more appealing and boost the response.
I said, “Well if you make unrealistic promises, you’ll just get a bunch of unrealistic customers, and that’s what you’ll be stuck with – people who dream all day and never do anything. Meanwhile the ones you really want will never believe you anyway.”
That’s always been my approach. Tell people like it is, so they understand what’s ahead of them… then work with people who are not going to die of a broken heart with the 4th of July comes and goes and they’re not out of Hanoi just yet.
The liberating thing about this is, people who are prepared for tough sledding will make it. You will revel in your victory when it does come. With the right overall strategy, victory can be almost inevitable.
Perry Marshall
P.S. Our Roundtable members gather together in October and we kick off with a custom business rebuild in September. Apply at www.perrymarshall.com/roundtable/
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About the Author
Perry Marshall has launched two revolutions in sales and marketing. In Pay-Per-Click advertising, he pioneered best practices and wrote the world's best selling book on Google advertising. And he's driven the 80/20 Principle deeper than any other author, creating a new movement in business.
He is referenced across the Internet and by Harvard Business Review, The New York Times, INC and Forbes Magazine.
13 Comments on “The Flagrant Abuse of Positive Thinking”
I’ve been a customer of yours for awhile. When I get an email from you – I almost always read it. Above all other “experts”.
But of all the email you’ve sent, I think, this needs to rank among the top 5 must read postings – by EVERYONE. Aspiring, struggling and current entrepreneurial types.
So much noise about….think positive, buy more positive messages, keep thinking positive…. Eventually, we find ourselves delusional – instead of doing what must be done. And taken to the extreme – its just as bad as being hyper negative at everything with the “why bother, don’t try” view
Positive thinking…so abused….needs to be a thinking shelter for battered and abused thinking…
Good stuff Perry
Jim Collins made the Stockdale Paradox a major portion of “Good to Great.” The mediocre companies refused to see what their true challenges were, whereas the good to great companies faced the brutal truth and recognized what they had to do in order to transcend.
Great thoughts in there, and I would raise the issue of intellectual versus emotional response. We may intellectually understand that people we deal with will let us down, but we may still have deep-rooted ‘instincts’ that will make it hard to accept.
Hello Perry, What a great article. I had forgot the Admiral Stockdale story. What an eyeopener, he was very wise. You put it right about promises in what you plan to give people when they join you. Show good leadership skills, but do not overload yourself. Thanks, Andrew Gallop
Perry,
Good post – the headline caught my eye on Twitter. As a videographer, I’ve learned to always assume the worst and come prepared. That philosophy saved our butts on more than one occasion!
In the world of the internet, it’s always good to have back up plans and not base your entire business and marketing plan on the hope it will work forever. You still have to follow sound business practices.
Thanks for letting me share.
Kim
Hi Perry,
Thanks for that and you’re obviously right. My main problem is that I was still working with a copywriter to achieve a conversion rate, and the best way was to get instant targeted adwords traffic. I can’t afford to wait for SEO. However I can’t help but think my particular niche isn’t suitable for a lot of the alternative traffic sources. And that’s not a “my business is different” excuse, but it is an extremely narrow niche.
I’m obviously not going to give up, it’s just so frustrating that I haven’t had the chance to diversify before getting the slap. It’s not really like I was an accident waiting to happen like many folk… just unlucky.
Anyway, yes, this is a little whine I guess.
Thank you for your input,
Matt
Perry,
Once again your email slapped me right around the face. It’s like you read my mind. Unfortunately, I’m not in a position to be able to join your monthly club but as soon as I can, I intend to (in about 6 weeks.)
Just one question: You say “assume Google’s going to slap you sooner or later”. Is there a back up plan for this, other than using other traffic sources?
I’m all for diversification, but after launching my first major product recently, I frankly haven’t had a chance to diversify before getting the slap. After many months and a lot of money in developing my site and product, it’s now suddenly in a niche that Google apparently doesn’t like. (It wasn’t when I chose this niche.)
I know in your last email you mentioned a teleseminar on dealing with the issue of a slap, but as I say, I’m not in a position to join your monthly program so unfortunately can’t benefit from that.
I don’t expect you to address my issue in detail, but again, is there a back up plan for getting slapped other than other traffic sources?
You’re doing a good job, Perry.
Thank you for your time,
Matt
AdWords is the most walk-up turn-key simple and most powerful, but it is FAR from the only one.
There’s Yahoo and MSN. Facebook ads. Remarketing through various networks. Tons of smaller ad networks. Ads in ezines. http://www.SRDS.com which has every public mailing list in the US. Banner ad networks, popup networks. Affiliates and affiliate networks. Not to mention SEO. Teleseminars, JV’s, podcasts, video distribution.
Oh yeah, then there’s OFFLINE. Which can be excellent if you master it.
See http://www.perrymarshall.com/google/othermedia/
If your eyes are wide open you can never be backed into a corner.
It’s great reading from people who inspire others from the perspective of what’s real and worthwhile.
Thank you for that!
The truth is that business… all business is hard, including internet business.
It’s hard work, and still people are turned on into it with hopes of taking it easy, with not a minimal exertion of effort beyond what’s minimally required, because it’s what we’ve all been sold at some point or other.
Falling for that is trap No.1!
Understanding the business we’re in is necessary, and so is going at it prepared with a plan, an appropriate strategy, and an unwavering willingness to put in the time.
This was great! Thanks!
The MLM industry is flooded with this overly positive thinking abuse. I was abused by it at one time until I woke up.
The tide of amazing content continues!
Rough Workings of a Book we should write:
The Shoulders of Giants… The Backs of Slaves…
Finding New Age Alchemy in a world of Medieval Abritrage
Themes:
The 7 Primary Dichotomy’s that will kill your business:
Confidence & Power vs. Hope & Irresponsibility
Exploiting imbalances in market vs. turning seeming commodities in to precious material
Being driven by leverage vs. being driven by passion
Having command (usually temporarily) of a market force that carries its own innate influence vs. carrying your own influence by transmitting a unifying story through a community giving focus to a market’s desire.
Capitalizing on your intellect or natural capacity to absorb and retain principles vs. capitalizing on diligence, study, and application of principles at a rate & volume corresponding to your max intellect.
Exclusionary oppositions like 1?s & 0?s vs. complimentary oppositions like yin & yang.
opposites are opposites vs. opposites are reflections
Selling Freedom vs. Leading People to Be Free
We shall do some of these in teleseminar form, at least…
Hi Perry
Yes again another inspiring post.
I particularly like… assume plans 1,2,3 might not work out so have a 4 & 5.
I am going to implement that today, because right now everything relies on 1,2,3 working out, which may not be the case.
I need a back-up plan just in case.
Thanks for the great tips as always,
Sally :)