10 Predictions for 2012

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1. One of the world’s 3 major economic systems (Europe, USA, Asia) will experience a MAJOR correction. Huge snapping sound propagates ’round the globe.

Where will the tsunami strike first? I don’t know, but some clues:

  • Surely nobody needs to remind you about the Unstoppable Force (US government spending), vs. the Immovable Object (reality). The Unstoppable Force is not unstoppable and will hit a wall. The next wave of billionaires will be options traders who bet their money that sooner or later, reality will prevail.
  • China is in a massive real estate bubble. A condo in Guangzhou costs every bit as much as a condo in downtown Chicago; in Shanghai it costs more. I have no way of predicting when this is going to end but it will.
  • Britain’s debt is even worse than the US.
  • Porter Stansberry’s famous “End of America” video (a contrivance of some truly brilliant copywriters) predicts the next apocalypse will come when the world suddenly decides to abandon the dollar.

The reason Porter is wrong is that the other choices are even worse.  Sort of like an election, where you vote for the person you suspect to be the least-evil puppet ruler. Karl Deninger said, “The US dollar is a hooker with crabs… all the other currencies have AIDS.”

2. Cost Per Impression for online marketing exceeds that of offline. Online offers no particular price advantage in thick niches; the advantage is in the bells and whistles and targeting. Well worth the money, by the way.

This trend is already firmly established with “Jugular Offers” (troublesome B2C categories like business opportunities, weight loss, alternative medicine) where Google bans are the norm.

This means ninja marketers now use Pay Per Click to test and perfect, then cut deals elsewhere for the big profits. (Funny…. hey, wasn’t I saying that 8 years ago?) Customers acquired offline are more loyal.

Online-offline integration is the name of the game. I know a surprising number of guys who are making big bucks with radio advertising. Almost all the best info marketers I know are using direct mail profitably.

3. Social Media as a hotbed of demographic and psychographic insight – not sales channel.

Yesterday I was eating corn chips and on the bag was the obligatory blue Facebook “F” logo. “Woo hoo!” I thought. “I sure do love Facebook, it’s where I interact with my favorite brands and learn about coupons and special promotions. Happy Happy Joy Joy!”

Before another minute was allowed to pass, I rushed to my computer and became a fan of Frito-Lay.

Seriously, Frito-Lay isn’t going to budge their sales numbers an inch with a Facebook Fan page. However they will get some fans anyway, and the psychographic information they can get from Facebook will tell them stuff about compulsive TV-watching snackers they’d never figure out from a focus group.

This is the whole idea behind our own Fanalytix™. Years ago you couldn’t have bought this information for any price; now it’s buried under your own mattress. Those who use it possess a decisive edge.

Oh, and even though Twitter has no business plan, they can topple Arab regimes. I believe the CIA secretly sends a white van to the alley behind Twitter’s offices and tosses bags of $1000 bills to a guy in an orange suit.

4. Massive Asia Middle Class. Between China and India, their middle class now rivals the entire population of Europe. Asia isn’t nearly the haven of cheap outsourcing that it used to be; people who used to work for 60 cents an hour now cost four bucks.

It also means Asia’s creme de la creme is 3 million strong and they have TONS of cash. I saw more Bentleys in China in 3 weeks than in Chicago all year. If what you sell is expensive and confers status, you need catch the next flight to Shanghai or Bangalore.

What is "80" and what is "20" for your business right now? Take my 2-minute quiz and I'll show you where you'll get the highest compound interest on your time and money!

5. Facebook hits the wall w/ investors. I doubt this will happen in 2012. Maybe in 2013. But at some point, the money people will wake up and realize Facebook has been playing patty-cake with their kindergarten advertising system. Facebook’s gonna go public and public companies have to make money.

Facebook ads are still the wild west, where people rub sticks together to make fire. The good news is, there’s a lot of dry firewood.

Just as a major correction is inevitable, Facebook turns a corner and finally decides to get serious about advertising. Not a moment too soon.

6. Affluent Europeans and Americans are adding a 2nd residence in developing countries. I have a friend who’s doing a seminar on how to set up a second residence in Guatemala. It’s already sold out.

There are some real advantages: Nobody in Costa Rica worries about riots in London, and the cooks and maids there are really cheap.

7. Futurist Ray Kurzweil has long predicted the coming “Singularity.” This is when, through the power of Moore’s Law, a desktop PC finally exceeds the power of the human brain. He says it’s going to happen in less than 20 years.

At that time all the computers in the world will be networked together to form a global brain of unimaginable power, ushering us into utopia. We’ll all upload ourselves into the cloud and achieve immortality. Some folks are cryogenically freezing their heads so they can be resurrected decades from now.

Kurzweil has somehow not noticed that Microsoft Word took two minutes to open 20 years ago and still takes two minutes now. He’s managed to not notice that your computer today is no more self-aware or capable of will or desire than the PC you had in 1993.

Does anyone *really* believe there’s no problem that can’t be solved with more CPU cycles? (“Dear business owner: Your REAL problem isn’t lack of credit or sagging sales. It’s the fact that your computer is just too slow….”)

Oh yeah, and the Singularity crowd assumes you can trust the IT department to house your brain and not sell the memory of losing your virginity to the porn guys.

Meanwhile, people who swore they’d live to be 150 still have strokes at age 57. The “Singuarity” is a rapture story for secular sophisticates.

8. Google plus will never unseat Facebook, but…. Larry Page has tied 25% of employee bonuses to Google+. What this really means is that Google is amassing even more demographic and psychographic data than Facebook ever dreamed of.

This is handy for Google: Facebook takes all the heat from privacy groups for their massive public gaffes, while Google AdWords gets better and better. This is GREAT for advertisers.

9. Retargeting means that the days of 3 cent clicks on Google’s Display Network are over, unless you’re targeting Trailer Trash prospects.

10. Four horsemen: Netflix, Pandora, Spotify and Amazon. The price of books, movies and music is headed towards zero. You’re already seeing 1-day Kindle specials: $20 books are $2.99, 99 cents or even free.

Amazon will start renting books to you on your Kindle the same way Netflix rents movies.

At Amazon, books are just a loss leader for selling flat-screen TV’s and Christmas presents. For you, books are a loss leader for selling ______?

You better decide right now. And if you don’t come up with a loss-leader strategy for your biz… someone else will.

Sleep with one eye open.

Perry Marshall

P.S.: Groupon’s gonna fizzle.

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About the Author

Perry Marshall has launched two revolutions in sales and marketing. In Pay-Per-Click advertising, he pioneered best practices and wrote the world's best selling book on Google advertising. And he's driven the 80/20 Principle deeper than any other author, creating a new movement in business.

He is referenced across the Internet and by Harvard Business Review, The New York Times, INC and Forbes Magazine.

77 Comments on “10 Predictions for 2012”

  1. Perry…kindly reveal who your friend is that’s”…doing a seminar on how to set up a second residence in Guatemala.” We might be able to do business with him. Thanks.

  2. Every second there are 11 million pieces of information your brain takes in. 40 of those pieces are handled by the new brain known as the frontal cortex (our logical and cognitive awareness) which leaves 10,999,960 pieces of information to be handled by the middle brain (our subconscious emotional and intuitive centre).

    By the way, the old brain (reptilian brain) deals with just 3 issues. To put it crudely…
    1.) Can I eat it?
    2.) Can I fuck it?
    3.) Will it kill me?

    As soon as emotion and intuitive capacity is built into a computer, along with replication capabilities to pass on the best achievements, then – and only then will our brains have any competition from computers.

    To learn more read Jonah Lehrer’s book titled “How We Decide” http://www.amazon.ca/How-We-Decide-Jonah-Lehrer/dp/0618620117

    It is fascinating, easily read, eye opening and ground breaking awareness.

  3. As always, written so cool, once you start reading you can`t stop. I think I spilled some coffee while reading

  4. As usual, your post is easy to read and understand for foreigners like me. I was watching a TV program this morning, 8th, Sunday. There were 8 famous CEOs including Mr. Harada, CEO of MacDonald, Japan. They were asked to show their feel of Japanese economy for 2012. Everyone of them said that it can be OK, for 2012 because of the construction demand for the tsunami hit area.

    But the currency conversion may hurt us being too dear for us to continue manufacturing locally.

    Oh, I’d like to quote your article at my site, american-search-engine.com. I’ll put your blog address for further reference. It will be translation into Japanese. So, I may have to ask your permission first.

  5. Great list, Perry. I personally found prediction #10 to be the most thought-provoking. Seems to jibe with some of the things Seth Godin has been writing on The Domino Project.

    I just published my business predictions for 2012 and linked back to you. :-)

    Ryan

  6. Good predictions. At the time computers get the same capacity of our brains, it will be better to use them to invest because nobody will be able to work in the traditional way, because computers will be cheaper for manual labour.

    Perry, what happened with Adwords predictions by the way?

  7. Perry: The more i listen to you, the more i feel im screwed and have no chance of ever making it and maintaining my place in a market.

    And I always felt i didnt have super value(expertise)
    to share in any market.

    So as a result, should i just give up on the idea of making it online? If im no expert in any market, i dont have a competitive advantage no?

    These may seem like basic questions, but believe it or not theyre coming from someone who has tried to make it online for 6 years, and has been through tons of the big guru programs (good and bad)

    1. Oliver,

      This is a GREAT question. So many layers behind it, too. I’m going to make this question the subject of my next Renaissance Club newsletter which will get mailed out in about 2 weeks.

      Short answer:

      If you don’t really know what you’re talking about, then God forbid that you should ever become an info marketer. The last thing planet earth needs is another self-proclaimed expert delivering candy-coated advice who is following people who are following people who are lost and doesn’t actually know jack ****. The reason Google appears to hate so many info marketers is that 75% of them are lame-ass posers. And everybody knows it.

      If you don’t have super value to share, then let yourself off the hook. < > Find someone who does and share THEIR value. The world has way too many people offering mediocre products and services which have no real justification for their existence. Why clutter the marketplace with more noise and junk?

      There are millions of unbelievably good products, inventions, widgets, ideas, books, courses, experts who are too modest, too shy, or too uneducated about marketing, etc. to do a good job for themselves. Find one of the good guys and help them.

      Lots more could be said about this, much more useful advice on what to actually go out and do. I’ll go deeper in the January Perry Marshall Marketing Letter which goes out snail-mail.

      And remember this: In the land of the blind, the man with one eye gets to be king. Many markets are populated by unsophisticated, uneducated marketers. A lot of “turn key” programs and systems that are popular among marketers are aimed at incredibly competitive markets populated by ninjas. Most markets are a lot easier than that. Pick a battle you can win.

      1. Hey Perry,
        Thanks so much for your reply!
        I never expected you would reply, and with such a long answer.

        It’s not that I don’t have any value, but I feel Im not a super expert, just wanted to be clear that i never intended to sell garbage : )

        thanks again and thinking of getting your monthly renaissance membership.

        P.S. Even though i almost never bought anything from you (although a few product still), if i were to only pick one marketer to pair with, it would be you. 2012 gonna be the year all about Perry for me – im finally getting i need solid business training.

        cheers!
        Oli

  8. 6. Affluent Europeans and Americans are adding a 2nd residence in developing countries.

    You don’t have to be affluent. You can open a bank account in Belize online. You can open a bank account in China by visiting their consulates here in the US.

    There are a multitude of places around the world that offer better lifestyle and business environments than are currently available in the US.

    As always, I appreciate your prospective.

    All the best to your recently expanded family in the new year.

    Regards,

    Joe Mobley

  9. Wow Perry you and I are wierd brother…
    I too read The Singularity Is Near.
    Avery strange but mind opening read.
    PC’s as powerful as the human brain in 20 years ehh?
    Hmmm…

  10. Wow!
    Gee Perry you really kicked a sleeping dog here!
    I would love to be part of your marketing team. You’re good at what you do and I would like to have to have as a mentor.
    The focus here should always be on the moving goal posts of the changing world of the internet. (sounds like a electronic soap opera).
    You’re right about Groupon, they’re basis is wrong for a continued business.
    We’re at the point where “real evergreen” products and marketing services will rule the internet.
    The maturing of the electronic work place.

  11. Being based in Europe we experience firsthand all the political mistakes of the last decade. Everybody wants into the history books for uniting Europe, nobody wants to take responsibility for the mess we are in financally by linking horse carriages to Porsches. Beside, since Nixon took the gold out of the dollar money became politically manipulated, not only in the US. We will have a massive inflation, not only in Europe to correct the problems till the next bubble starts.

    Thank you for your other insights. May I add to Nr.2?
    cpc has people only 01:13 minutes on our website (68% leave immediately), all others stay between 4:20 and 4:56 minutes. So cpc is expensive even if there are medium till good ctr’s. If the keyword does not match the emotional expectations of the customer we loose him or her.

  12. There is a saying of king Solomon like this:
    The wiser man is the one who can vizualize ,whith
    the most preciseness,what brings us the coming future.Ithing that you are the man.

  13. Let’s not forget Japan’s collapse. They have a debt that dwarfs the US, on top of an aging population with no immigration. The saving grace here is the work ethic and the proximity to China.

    China will hit a wall, but they will most likely come out stronger. In fact, I see the coming century as the Asian century. This has less to do with economic fundamentals that attitude. Too many Westerners (readers of Perry Marshall excepted of course) have developed an entitlement mentality – they believe they have a right to the good life, and to do whatever they want without consequences or concern for society. That attitude is practically non-existent in Asia.

    America needs a heavy dose of painful reality. Even then, I’m afraid the masses will look for a scapegoat (China? Jews? Anyone with a successful business?) before they look at themselves. I can only hope the thinking we see in the comments here eventually becomes mainstream. I find it appalling that the country has essentially abandoned the constitution (and common sense) without a fight.

    1. Not quite accurate with Japan’s debt. US is something around $1.4 trillion and Japan’s is $1 trillion. Of course as a % of GDP then Japan’s almost double that of the US. But if you take into account government assets then Japan’s shrinks back down around the US level. The major difference though is Japan’s debt is currently owned by the Japanese. The US debt is half owned by other countries.

      The Japanese are also finally starting to do something about it, raising the consumption tax first to 8% in a couple of years time and 10% after that. What’s the US doing about it? Sweet FA unless Ron Paul gets in! Karl is looking at the situation through stars and stripes glasses I feel. Sure the euro and the pound are on the nose but the Chinese RMB and the Japanese yen?

      I find it ironic that the world’s largest economy with the world’s largest debt has a currency that has appreciated against every other major one except that of Japan who has the world’s second largest debt!

      The only currencies worth the paper they are printed on and backed by functioning economies are that of Australia and Canada. Everything else is a quagmire of debt.

      We are entering a new age, perhaps one of the healer, dreamer and peacemaker. Reminds of that book the Celestine Prophecy that was so huge in the mid 90s. What is required is not a political change but a philosophical one.

    2. Bill

      You observation of “entitlement” is what I also see. It is because of the way the North American culture is brainwashed.

      Reality is going to hit hard for many and it already has for some.

      The way out of the mess is simple. Create economic environment for entrepreneurs that can and do create jobs. Recognizing that it means reducing taxes for them so that they can put that money back into the business.

      Being an entrepreneur is not easy, but it is most rewarding.

      I am grateful I have taken the path of creating a business that is creating opportunity for my clients with new inbound leads and that creates more jobs for them. All connected.

        1. Not all civilizations collapse. Just almost all.

          The Jewish civilization is still intact, with essentially the same language, culture religion, holidays and diet as they had 4,000 years ago.

          They stand alone.

          The 2nd oldest civilization, still somewhat intact, less so yet with a remarkable level of continuity, is the Catholic church.

          The Greeks, Romans, Egyptians, Mayas, Incas, etc etc etc as they once existed are all completely gone.

          One would do well to consider why that is.

  14. Love your quote from Karl Deninger said, “The US dollar is a hooker with crabs… all the other currencies have AIDS.”

    The other 9 predictions are most interesting. The online-offline worlds of marketing and advertising are merging. For some businesses the ability to be integrated with social media, ppc and SEO is a game changer. For small and local businesses the ability to compete effectively with the big brands as low cost entry points exists, with Facebook, Twitter, and websites with Blogs.

    I predict that entrepreneurs will continue to create new products and services that will add value to the community.
    The Constitution of America is the document that should be referenced to bring USA back to reality of what can and should be done.

  15. I found a newspaper article about the ‘widening gap’ between the rich and poor and those clueless people in the middle, who seem doomed to go down rather than up. Although much of the item was off track, it did state that the rich create their own wealth, a point you’ve made time and again. Perhaps if people like you can inspire enough others to achieve greater things (and wealth) we won’t need any doomsday scenario after all. Here’s hoping.

  16. I can’t add to this Perry. I know I can if I try, but I’ll use some of your suprememely accurate predictions, which is also supremely logical, looking at the market trend in the world.

    I believe this election year will have folks more focussed and interested in the Constitution of the USA and even the Constutution of other countries.

    Maybe this information may be valuable to determine any country’s direction, as long as they don’t deviate away from it.

    I wonder what Iran’s Constutution really is?

    God bless

    Gerald

  17. I’m a musician songwriter so you’ll understand that I’m confused.
    If everything is free, art, music, movies, books
    And wealth is gone
    How do you pay rent?
    How do you not starve to death when reality comes to your door? Why make art?
    Why

    1. I didn’t say I liked the trend, it just is what it is. All the money in the music biz is in touring now – so far as I can tell. What you need to figure out is – how does your very cheap music lead to a profitable gig? Profitable gigs will never disappear.

      1. I agree with Perry: The money in music is usually in touring. That’s why U2 is still one of the most successful bands around. Their gigs usually sell out in minutes, months in advance. Every concert is a million-dollar business.

  18. Great predictions, Perry, I’m very interested to see how social media pans out as a marketing tool. As a communication channel, there is no doubt it works, and we’ve claimed it as “ours” in the PR world. One thing I missed in your list was a nod to mobile marketing. Smart phones are ubiquitous and in everyone’s pocket. You can’t deny the power of the mobile marketplace. App development is going to continue, and the smart phone, QR codes, PURLS, all that stuff will continue to boos the ability to integrate marketing online and offline.

  19. Regarding point 7, I think the singularity has more to do with converging technologies dramatically expanding human capabilities rather than just smart computers. I am working on a related problem researching possible paths to physical immortality, if interested, let me know. kevin7314 at gmail

  20. Hi Perry.

    Wonderful predictions. Not sure if the Uk Debt will ever be bigger than the USA though.
    As more and more people seek ways work from home using the internet as their main source of income to make money i’m sure your predictions will help motivate them even further.

    Keep up the great work.

    Best wishes
    ROY DERRICK

    http://www.perfectprosperity.com

  21. Thanks for a very thought-provoking post, Perry. Scary, kind of cynical,a little depressing, and somehow optimistic.

    Here’s my prediction: Somebody figures out why Nyan Cat (on YouTube) has generated almost 58 million views and uses his evil genius to control the entire world of on-line marketing.

  22. It’s always good to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Too often we have our head down in the detail and forget about it. Looking forward to a great year here. The last mastermind call struck a nerve and 80/20 came to life for me. Cheers, Mitch

  23. Perry,
    Would you care to share with us your predictions for 2011 and how things *actually* turned out at the end?
    ;-)

  24. Hey Perry,

    I know you recently upgraded your car to a new version. Maybe its time you upgraded your computer from the 286 era to at least at least a older P4 model. I just checked loading time for Word on my 4 year old Pentium 4 and it was 6 seconds for Word 2010.

    By the way that system is for sale if you’re in the market.

    Best Wishes for a Excellent 2012

  25. Great stuff, Perry. And congratulations on your family expansion. What a sweet blessing she must be.

    Author Dan Miller has said that we are moving into times where there will be a growing demand for dreamers, healers and peacemakers. That really resonates me, especially as a follower of Christ. If you think this is relevant, can you comment as it relates to your 2012 predictions?

    Many thanks for telling it like it is!

    1. Absolutely, this is the age of the healers, dreamers and peacemakers because they’re the only people who know how to get us out of this mess.

      Oh, and I think the habitually generous will be spared from worst of the fire. I think 2013+ is the age of the peacemakers.

  26. Brilliant, Perry.

    There are few people I believe when it comes to predictions, but there are those who both have vision and intelligence. Couple that to skills in communication – and you have a person to trust.

    A thought on Computers – you say “He’s managed to not notice that your computer today is no more self-aware or capable of will or desire than the PC you had in 1993.” – I often counter people who believe in artificial intelligence (they are usually academics) and ask them how many computers win at chess.

    Then I ask them if a computer can enjoy *losing* a game of chess. I am sure that as an optimistic person, you are able to enjoy the game for the sake of playing it not just the winning or losing.

    As a family we developed many methods of calculating scores so that the entire family would win – or better put, that everybody acted together to make a good score. With that done, the individual winners would get some kudos too :-)

    I am now back in business (not quite sure what, yet) and thanks to your persistance, I am still heading in your direction.

    My troll has gone (I hope!) so my gravatar will get itself changed back sometime. Thanks as ever for keeping Planet Perry buzzing and eager for each new email.

  27. I’d add the instability of the European ‘union’ and euro as a major factor in #1. Sooner or later, both the US and EU are going to hit reality…and that will mean folks stop spending by X amount to react to the changes. Europeans buy a lot of stuff…and they won’t buy nearly as much.

    Combine that with basic demographics like this:

    *China is aging and their population slowing. That bubble is going to burst (as if govt projects to build huge vacant cities to prop up economic growth numbers wasn’t our first clue)

    *The largest generation in US history is approaching that time in life where saving is a higher priority than spending….so no matter what the government tries, it won’t work like it has in the past. Cut taxes? Govt stimulus? Sorry Mr. Keynes, the animal spirits are planning for retirement.

    My personal take is that there will be deflation, massive “restructuring of asset valuations” (ie things like stock markets and other asset classes dropping sharply to reflect new realities, debts being defaulted on, etc). Banks are lying their butts off about their true value if they hold significant real estate currently…if they truly valued their assets many banks would fail this month.

    I love the quote about the dollar like a hooker with crabs….and totally agree. New slogan: U-S-A, U-S-A, We Suck Less!

    It is spooky when you read books from different disciplines and they all seem to point to this next 5-10 years as being a ‘winter season’ or a time of pruning. Whether its Strauss and Howe on Generational Theories or Dent on demographics and economic/market cycles, or Elliott Wave Theory with Precter. Different perspectives, reaching a roughly similar conclusion to common sense…there is going to be a ‘cleaning’, correction, reset, whatever.

    Which is going to be rough for many. And huge opportunity for others. Perry, thanks for helping lead the charge for those looking for opportunity. We can also then be those who help those who will go through “systemic displacement” (ie lots of bummer experiences they didn’t see coming). I agree that entrepreneurs can lead the charge here. Like Joseph in the bible, we can look ahead, prepare now, and be ready for ‘famine’…. so we can take care of our own AND be a help to others.

  28. Interesting comment about the dollar, Perry. After all the press last year about the rest of the world threatening to use something else as the currency standard, it recently becomes apparent that everything else you could use is worse!

  29. Perry,
    Your views are always intriguing to me. Maybe it is because I share the values you verbalize.

    Regarding the major economies, item 1:

    I think research on consumer confidence will indicate an upswing in the coming months. After all, it’s an election year with a potential incumbent. Nuff said. Here in Hinsdale, Illinois, we believe the local Hinsdale home values will stiffen this year. Would like to hear your take on that.

    If you agree with my 2012 forecast, I would believe that you believe there are monumental waves of trouble on the world economic horizon. And, short term politics will fail to curb the swell. True?

    1. In the short term things seem to be on the upswing. Plus, let’s say Asia has big problems – many others will somehow benefit from it. Crisis = opportunity.

  30. Hi Perry,

    A computer will never have a soul, never be conscious of itself, so it will never attain the intelligence of a living being.

    I remember when futurists predicted that we would be able to get all our nutrition from a single pill…I was a kid then. Some predictions are not based in reality, in the unbreakable laws of the universe. Our culture needs better education in science.

    Thanks for a great post!

    Christine

  31. Perry – these are great predictions. I always used to think of social media as a sales channel and a way to increase sales, but I am now thinking this is not the right approach.

    Social media is more like a focus group and a way to continue the conversation and increase brand awareness. I view it as another way to get eyeballs on my offering and how I can help people who are interested…

  32. Hallelujah Perry! Point #2 in particular (“Online offers no particular price advantage in thick niches; the advantage is in the bells and whistles and targeting”) is something I have been saying for well over a year now, but not many people want to hear it!

    Perhaps I should start up a direct mail biz on the side for clients who can no longer afford to buy Google clicks! :-)

    After all, if a stamp is 50-65 cents and a click is $3-$10, then which option makes more sense financially? :-) Plus the letter could easily contain 200+ words vs 95 characters, and you don’t have to worry about Quality Score, being slapped or any of the other rubbish Google forces on us at times!

    Also, point #9 about remarketing. It is becoming sooo common now that most of the ads I see on sites are obviously following me around. I even have ads from a radio control helicopter site (that I spent time on) following me now, not just online marketing provider ads :-)

    #1 concerns me, even though Australia is doing well economically. But that’s that old Amway line about danger being the chinese word (or character) for opportunity? Methinks the next 5-10 years are going to totally revolutionise the big winners financially.

    All the rest of your points were very valuable/interesting/enlightening as well.

    Thanks for another great post.

    Eran

    PS: Best Christmas present ever was the $20 R/C helicopter I brought myself and my brother in law. We had a BLAST with them. Highly recommended. Hence the remarketing ads following me around. :-)

  33. I agree with much of what you have written.

    But social media is a money maker for people who know what they are doing.

    I’m currently doing 5:1 off cold Facebook direct to a sales page.

    Sales off a “like page” are a bit slower.

    They do buy Amazon product however.

  34. Hi

    Epic stuff as always and in the year of the dragon so true..

    Point 10 however – they are doing this already amazon renting book on kindle.. i saw it the other day. You take prime and you can borrow some books! just like a library – game over i think for book retailers.

    regards

  35. #11. “The data that Google makes available will be reduced. Google now sees its ownership of data as a competitive advantage to be protected from marketers and other advertising networks. In the latter half of 2011, Google began to roll out changes that have taken data away from marketers, specifically about how and where visitors found their website. Since October, between 10-15% of visits to websites from Google have no longer sent information to webmasters and marketers. It is safe to assume that Google will continue to expand these changes, further limiting the data available to marketers unless they’re willing to pay.” Source: http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2011/12/google_will_change_web_marketi.html

    Also: you’re wrong about Groupon.

  36. Gosh Perry, thanks a lot! Here I was going to take the weekend off, not think about work…and now you’ve got me thinking about world domination!

    I read this and realize those of us who can anticipate, plan, prepare and proactively respond to any/all of these topics ARE all about world domination.

    When I was in Hong Kong and Guilin in 1989, there was NO middle class. What a transformation in a couple of decades!

    Conversely, our middle class is shrinking…hmmm, you didn’t address the implications of that. Except that the Unstoppable Force hasn’t been able to stop the shrinkage.

    Thanks so much as always Perry…lots of great food for thought!

  37. Hey Perry,

    I think #3 is a little ambitious for 2012… I believe that will take some time (perhaps a couple more years) before the “selling steam” wears off.

    But solid predictions for sure. :)

  38. Great post Perry!

    Please could you drive me to get more resources about this?

    6. Affluent Europeans and Americans are adding a 2nd residence in developing countries.

    Thx

      1. I have people up in Canada interested in setting a second residence offshore as well. If you can pass my contact information along as well, it would be appreciated.

        Also, I haven’t checked this out yet but apparently you can get free reading material on just about anything older than 75 years where the copyrights have expired and the author has passed away. This is called “Project Gutenberg (sp?)” but apparently they are amassing a huge amount of free content that you can download onto readers, as text, or even pdf files. If this is true, this might be the fourth horseman’s behind-the-scenes presence. Definitely makes your take on giving away free white paper material VERY relevant.

        Best regards for a prosperous 2012.

      2. Hi Perry,

        Great post!

        I live in Costa Rica and I’m witnessing your prediction of “Affluent Europeans and Americans are adding a 2nd residence in developing countries.” happening before my eyes right now… more and more every day.

        I’m actually helping several do this right now.

        Would be great to get in contact with your friend and exchange some experience and ideas about this.

        Please be so kind and pass my contact information to him.

        Thank you and Pura Vida!

        Andres Molina

  39. Hi Perry,
    Nice post. I haven`t left many comments on so many of your posts and articles on “cosmicfingerprints“ since first time I read them. Some of them really worth to read and share.
    What I see in this post is logic continuation of your “Sweeping changes is underway“ posted in 2010.

    Respectfully,

  40. Nobody knows the future, Perry, but you’re a very entertaining writer with deep thoughts worth pondering. I especially like it when you have the nerve to take contrary positions to the contrarians!

    In an era where wealth is shrinking faster than a Republican candidate’s moment in the sun, considering how to add value on this hamster wheel we call the market is perhaps reason #1 to sleep with an eye open.

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