This is a real sign on I-75 in Georgia.
1. In 2010, Google AdWords will announce a procedure for “hearings and fair trials” for banned advertisers. This will enable them to play “Good Cop-Bad Cop” with you if your accounts get shut down.
2. Twitter will get sold to a larger company for less than the $500 million they turned down from Facebook in 2009.
3. The next rage in pay per click is cookie-ing visitors on your site and then having targeted contextual ads “stalk your prospects” on other sites as they surf the Internet. Jonathan Mizel will cover this extensively in a January 29 teleseminar.
4. By 2014 the newspaper will be drastically different than it is now. Most local papers will have vanished; large pubs will consolidate down to just a few like the New York Times, USA Today and the Wall Street Journal. Sorry, but there’s no need for 200 different newspapers to all be running the same stories from the wires; it’s duplicate content. Meanwhile a minority of high-traffic bloggers will be identified as doing better research with better reporting and less bias than the traditional media.
5. The music industry is headed in the same direction. The bands that succeed during the next 10 years will be the ones who figure out how to connect directly to their audience via social media and direct marketing. Recently I had a conversation with a recording artist whose advance for making a CD has shriveled from $50K+ down to $15K now, because piracy and digital distribution are shrinking the pie. He can’t depend on them to bring him an audience anymore. (Does that sound at all familiar?) Neil Peart of Rush said essentially the same thing, reporting they want to do an album in 2010 but the record company won’t pay for it. The band is now in search of some other mechanism. I predict that membership and continuity models are the future of the music industry.
6. There will always be demand for excellent content, regardless of what happens to TV networks, record companies, etc. Case in point: DVD and iTunes sales of TV series like “24” and “Lost” are strong, because those shows are superbly produced. I bought the first four seasons of 24, myself. The worst place to be in media is in the “expensive bureaucratic mediocre middle.”
7. I gave away some Amazon Kindles for Christmas this year, and electronic books are most definitely on the rise. Electronic readers are awesome, they’ll become the norm, and the future is not bright for traditional printing and publishing models. However… excellent magazines and books will NEVER disappear. Ever.
8. The traditional HTML website site hand-crafted by an HTML editor and uploaded via FTP is fast becoming a relic, replaced by Content Management Systems and platforms like WordPress and Joomla.
9. There is a small, vocal minority of people that insist that in biology, evolution is entirely purposeless and random. This crowd dominates the current academic scene and cooks up anti-scientific theories like “Junk DNA.” My professional experience in our fast-evolving, “darwinian” online world tells me, evolution is supremely intelligent, NOT random. The intellectual Berlin Wall of 19th century Darwinism will crack in 2013. A 21st century version of evolution is coming, one that doesn’t sneer at religion. I blogged about this last week.
10. Wikipedia will silence its critics. Obviously it’s immensely practical and it’s worked, having entirely replaced the traditional encyclopedia. However, vandalism is a constant problem for some categories. Wikipedia has always had a reputation for smearing controversial people and topics. But they’re cleaning up, and for the most part doing an excellent job. I made a donation for the first time the other day and I think Wikipedia has made a huge contribution to the speed of getting research done. Nothing has done more for bringing the Open Source movement to the masses.
Happy New Year, and here’s to you in your mission to advance in your own corner of the world during this digital decade.
Perry Marshall
What do YOU predict? Post your thoughts in the comment box below…
Share This Post
About the Author
Perry Marshall has launched two revolutions in sales and marketing. In Pay-Per-Click advertising, he pioneered best practices and wrote the world's best selling book on Google advertising. And he's driven the 80/20 Principle deeper than any other author, creating a new movement in business.
He is referenced across the Internet and by Harvard Business Review, The New York Times, INC and Forbes Magazine.
183 Comments on “10 Predictions for 2010-2019”
I’m so glad to see that you predict that WordPress and Joomla will be in the ascendant. I am a relative newbie and have spent the last three months getting up to speed with WordPress in both English and French. I toyed with traditional websites but decided to follow the WordPress route. So if it was the right decision, good!
As to Kindle – I haven’t tried it yet. It would be more practical for me as I live in France and access to Anglophone books is basically via Amazon, the post or secondhand shops and so I would not have to give up the sensual Aladdin’s cave experience of visiting bookshops – that’s only available on my rare visits to the UK. However, I do love the feel of a paper book, the turn of the page, the smell of the print and what happens if you drop your Kindle in the bath? Are they waterproof?
They are not waterproof!
Try drop a book in the bathtube…Still feeling the smell of the print?
9. There is a small, vocal minority of people that insist that in biology, evolution is entirely purposeless and random.
Perry, you (like most people) are confusing evolution with mutation and selection.
In biology:
Mutation is a random occurance (depending on the type of mutation you are talking about the result might not be)
Evolution is change, the type of change is irrelevant
Selection is reducing change based on fitness to environment AKA “Selective Pressure”
Half your statement deals with mutation, the other with selection, using the word evolution allows you to slip in to the gap in between.
Online:
Random does not really apply to an environment such as the internet where significant input is determined by sentient external entities. Hence, not mutation.
Selection does of course apply, a LOT.
The other things that apply relate to self orgnising networks, complexity theory, and feedback loops.
But what I’m waiting for is the OCE/OCP.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excession#Outside_Context_Problem
Roger,
I fully understand what you are saying but I am saying MOST EMPHATICALLY that the mutations themselves are not random in any way, shape or form. They are engineered by the genome. They are the DNA equivalent of intelligently re-arranging English words, sentences and paragraphs to change the message. Pretty much exactly the way we re-write and test Google ads. If you follow the link I gave you in #9 and read my explanations you’ll see that idea developed more fully. In particular look for my findings about the research done by Barbara McClintock and James Shapiro.
The doctrine that random mutations make a positive contribution to evolution is the #1 urban myth in all of science. It simply is not true. In 5 years of researching this hard, I have yet to find one single scientific paper that actually demonstrates this is so. McClintock provided an alternate explanation 65 years ago and she won the Nobel prize for it. It’s the real key to understanding evolution but 99% of people have never heard a thing about it. Tragic!
That will change though, this decade.
#3 already exists to some extent. I read somewhere DoubleClick (now Google) does it and I’ve noticed a few instances of that happening. Given the number of ad networks out there I guess some kind of inter connect agreement (like the mobile teclos) must be cooking to allow “seamless ad stalking”.
Hello Perry,
I have seen the news paper industry change even in Pakistan. Almost all national dailies now have an e-paper which is essentially an image map of the paper version. In my MBA classes, I usually poll the students on how they get their news, and paper is loosing to electronic big time.
I don’t know about your valuation of Twitter. It is immensely popular and useful and with Google and others including it in their real time results, they should be able to maximize ROI in a sale.
I am wondering if toolbars in browsers will start blocking cookies just like they block popups now? How will visitors react to stalking?
In support of prediction #9
In Misterium Cosmograficum, Kepler explicitly divined the motions of the planets from his understanding of the unity of the origin of all things.
He then deduced that every cross-section of curveature of action would necessarily be in a specific harmonic relationship with the entire orbit.
Kepler did not need any mechanical laws to draw an accurate conclusion as to where a planetary body will be at a future date.
Thanks for the great article. I have very much enjoyed reading these ideas and thinking about them. Have the best year yet in 2010, amigo.
In Natural selection, the exploratory part contains random elements. It is the selection part which is non-random.
My own predictions for the decade are here:
http://www.yashlabs.com/wp/2009/12/31/10-science-business-technology-predictions-for-the-next-decade-2010-2019/
Hey Perry,
I know I can only reiterate here, but Great Insights! Because they just are and make sense as to where things are and are going. To ignore it is to wear blinders.
Very interesting thought about the newspapers. But like books, the really good ones will survive. Somewhere the need to “handle in your hands” will keep some things alive.
The point about bloggers really makes a good discussion about how big some of these people can really become in the future based on their content and initiative and followers.
Anyways, glad to have featured you on my blog. I knew I made a good choice. Thanks for the info in the google adwords guide. I saw results within 20 minutes of a released campaign.
Cheers,
Joe Young
Thank you Perry for the insightful predictions.
1. To add on, I am thinking some alternative to the current model of energy production will be utilized more on a worldwide basis, not so much because of choice but probably because of market forces and greed.
2. Also, something might happen to organized religion worldwide, maybe just one religion or none at all. The theory of evolution will as usual be reinventing itself as new discoveries are made, and maybe it’ll become factual when proven.
Well, I would rather read this blog than a newspaper for sure (#4).
Thanks Perry for the intriguing predictions and dialogue. In my opinion #6 touches on a huge theme for 2010-2019 – emphasis on quality and efficiency across the board. Along with this trend I’ll throw in my prediction of a serious awakening toward the value of local community both physical and virtual. And, Wikipedia is like v0.1 of the onboard computer in Star Trek…
Your predictions are interesting. I also think that media is growing to be lot more powerful and we might see times where media dictates politics.
Srinath
Here are my predictions:
http://socialbling.wordpress.com/2010/01/01/relationship-and-social-trend-predictions-for-2010/
Well put Perry.
May be a link to last year’s predictions would be handy to see how well your last year’s forecast filled out ; )
I will definitely agree the standard html site/page is now part of internet history, I code all my sites with CMS like Joomla, WordPress and the like these days.
Cheers,
Greg
Fantastic ! Post and thread,thanks. I see the Kindle and Sony,Barnes & Noble etc. becoming more iPhone, like. there will have ads and esp video (You Tube in a TV raised generation is to strong). Also the average person only reads 1 book a year. The average millionaire reads 103 books a year. Kindle will reach for the masses.
I am a follower of Jesus the Christ. It’s about time they gave up on the religion of Darwinism. I do not have enough faith to believe in it. Maybe they will realize their is no missing link.
It was the Big Bang theory. God spoke–AND–BANG ! It happened ! <
I like most of your stuff, and this isn’t bad, but it’s pretty-much what every other pundit is saying, with a couple of minor “tweaks” here and there. None of it is news, or otherwise unexpected if you’re either not comatose or not still calling it “the Google.”
Perry,
There is a reason why you are only a handful of internet people I still follow each week. Thanks for your insight. I got 2 tidbits of action items from your list today.
Happy New Year !
Hi Perry,
With so much content coming thru on my email list, sometimes I think it’s a losing battle what to read. But your stuff is good and I look forward to your predicitions coming true.
It’s interesting about the music buisness comments, my partner doesn’t have a record contract but sells his music as he plays and maintains that it is a great way to go, as well as having a lot more contact with the people who like to listen to his music, which in the long-run is a lot more rewarding.
In 2010 I will make myself self-sufficient with my website, it will be a “scorcher”.
To you and your family have a wonderful 2010
Jude Mayall
I like the implicit suggestion behind almost all of Perry’s predictions: that the world won’t end in December 2012, as some apocalyptic types are espousing, lol.
-Jake
Excellent Insights Perry. One that you did not touch on which I was quite surprised is the rise of mobile Advertising. I believe we are positioned perfectly to see an absolute explosion into the mobile market.
Are we going to see google come out with an adwords for mobile phones? I would not be surprised exspecially with the new NEXUS Phone About to be unvieled
http://www.khabrein.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31017&Itemid=62
Is this the end of 2 year contracts with the mobile market? I sure hope so. We are the only country in the world that has these stupid force fed contracts that control us….
That’s my other big prediction. The End of Cell Phone Contracts as we know it. And who better to end it then Google?
Go Go Google Gadget :)
Oh, and Don’t forget the launch of Google Wave. This is sure to be a HUGE hit as businesses can finally centralize their social media insanity that we have now.. :)
Ok so I just gave 3 :)
Dr NET
I was like yeah, this is true, this is true, and then #9, wtf, he went religious on us lol. Dude, you were doing so well on your forward predictions, and then you went backwards.
I’m surprised no one has made a prediction on the profound impact that always on high-speed internet access in the palm of your hand on a mobile device nearly as powerful as your desktop computer that is with you at all times will have.
If this past decade was the digital revolution then I think this coming decade will be the mobile revolution.
With 4 times as many mobile phones as PCs in the world, the ramifications are quite significant and potentially much more disruptive to some industries than this first digital revolution has been.
The iphone has less than 5% market share of the entire mobile phone market worldwide yet over a billion apps were downloaded from itunes in the 1st 9 months. Those are adoption (i.e. disruption) rates we’ve never seen before…
-Teddy Garcia
Funny about the sign. I was driving back to Atlanta over the holiday break and took a picture on my iphone and sent it to you. Seems you already found it :) Crazy.
Perry,
I believe that you are dead-on about the music industry. Savvy musicians (or band managers) will definitely be moving toward continuity and membership in the coming years. Possibly as soon as May 2010. I’ve been expressing this belief to some of my musical peers for sometime now and they all think I’m crazy. Please note however that all of the naysayers are also the ones who still firmly believe that a record deal is what they “need” to break out. Being a do-it-yourselfer myself, I believe that record deals are something that will cost bands more in the long run than they will ever provide and therefore a become long-term liability. I myself will be moving towards a continuity model for my band’s future releases. I’ll keep you posted on my results, my friend.
Hey Perry,
Ha-ha-hah! Good list, but this won’t take a decade to complete. For goodness sake, #8 is already done, check it off your list. I have made a brand new business and support three families out of doing exactly what you described.
Merry New Year.
Thomas
Interesting predictions Perry.
I like #4 that many newspapers may disappear.I hope so.
The complete lack of effort by so called professional journalists today should be punished since they are simply regurgitating the main stream media’s disease of politically correct garbage.
I’ll go one step farther and say most of these folks should be fired or fined with their fear monegring and constant lies and lies of ommission.
I don’t even allow news on in my house which my kids now finally realize I’m serious.
I tell them hey if it gets bad enough Grandma will call. (Yes my Mother in law)
Anway Perry thanks for leading those of us who “will until.”
Now if you allow me a joke on that ‘tipo’…
It is Amway Perry, now anway :) …eheh ;)
… This topic delivers
Well, the Evolution is the ultimate direct marketing copywriter who relentlessly tries and tests every possible mutation. Apparently every one of us carries about 60 new mutations that our parents did not have. And with 6 billion people, every possibility gets to be tested at least on 12 people. And it happens a thousand times faster than we thought. God was not mentioned in this case because it was not necessary.
Happy New Year to all.
Books, mags and some newspapers will always be around. Remember people back in the early-mid 2000 were predicting the demise of the malls because of online shopping? Didn’t happen. Mall building actually increased. Slow now, because of the recession.
Remember this: People are social creatures. They have to congregate. They have to go to bookstores and coffee shops. I love gadgets, but I love the shop atmosphere more and holding real reading materials in my hand is way more attractive :)
John
unplain dot com
Hi Perry – interesting stuff. Not sure if I agree about the Kindle. I think the future is less gadgets, not more. Kindle reminds me of Laser Disks in the 90’s. Really cool, but quickly replaced by superior technology.
The biggest problem with the Kindle is that 90% of people don’t actually read the books they buy, so you gotta assume they enjoy the process of BUYING books a zillion times more than actually reading them. And a shelf full of stuff is much more fun than a hard drive full.
I think some type of interactive, mixed media book will replace the current best-sellers… like “choose-your-own-adventure” on crack with access to author and other readers. But that’s probably going to take more than a year to happen:)
Lucas
YOGABODY
Perry, you’ve done it again mate. A column about predictions has ‘evolved’ into a discussion about creationism v natural selection. Let me not be the last complex organism to make a comment. I am interested to see where it goes from here. I will be checking “religiously”.
Good list Perry. Here’s a few more from my side of the world here in New Zealand.
There will be an increase in pay per “filter” services. A paid for – human moderated content filtering system that allows you to get less content (but more of the good stuff)
Measured Digital branding will grow through the use of smart Adwords content network campaigns and view through conversions.
Pay as you go online media campaigns and services will challenge traditional media companies and channels.
“Neutral” 3rd party – question based cpc marketing campaigns will be increasingly used to engage with potential customers, and cut through the advertising clutter.
As always – it’s going to be a year about doing 4 things well.
1. Squeezing as many visitors out of a diversified Acquistion Strategy
2. Converting as many visitors into leads and customers.
3. Retaining and Engaging with Customers Frequently through an ongoing conversation.
4. Measuring and optimising.
Have a Great 2010.
Cheers
Mick
Thanks for an insightful list. Number 5 was an eye opener. Jonathan Coulton used to be a programmer but quit to become a singer-songwriter who now makes $5000 a month selling his own songs, like Code Monkey. He blogs and communicates extensively with his fan base.
Well, seriously…
If artists only get like 2 bucks or less from all the dvds they sell and the rest of the pie goes to the agencies and production of the physical thing itself, then most likely the normal evolution of this topic, is bye bye agencies and most musicians will have it done digital and accessible via mp3 or ‘mp10’ under a membership site like Perry stated. then they just have to go out and work their butt off doing concerts and get the real cash, but that is where musicians in general are getting their income already, not from the cds but from the live events.
José
Jom,
That’s exactly it. I’m not a music industry insider but I seriously doubt even a firmly established world-class band like Rush makes more than maybe $3 or so from a CD. I just don’t see why they need a record company any more at all.
Quick & dirty math: They go on tour, do 60 concerts with 10,000 fans each and generate $30 million of ticket sales from 600,000 fans. That’s $50 per ticket. And I know those numbers are roughly correct.
If they sold a $3 per month membership to half those fans (and not to any others) that would generate almost $1 million per month of revenue. Plus you don’t need a record company to get physical distribution. You just need distributors.
I can’t remember exactly where that Neil Peart comment was, I think it was on his website. But he said he prefers writing music and working in the studio to going out on the road. Rush could be 2X as prolific as they are now, all that music would have an audience, and the few hundred grand they need to cut studio albums would be modest compared to the revenue.
One of the problems with this is that the band has to come out and ask their fans for money, rather than being able to hide behind a label. They have to pitch their fans on joining. Most musicians are fairly uncomfortable with this. But when you cut the middle man out, there’s less money that needs to be asked for in the first place, and the band owns all the copyrights themselves and they don’t have any more fights with A&R departments and producers about how “radio friendly” their songs have to be.
The Tommy Lee comment on this page is also very interesting.
Perry
I am not so distressed over the fact that music artists don’t make very much from their CD’s and other recorded media. I think there will come a day when they will give it away for free and make money on the live performances. The amount of money made in a live performance is so over the top crazy (like a band really deserves $30 mil to play a 2 hour gig) that it more than evens out. Just think, these artists should consider themselves lucky that it doesn’t cost them anything but the studio costs to get their music distributed to the masses which is, in essence, simply priming the public for the concert tour coming up later. The losers, of course will be those artists who want to remain in the studio and not go out on the road.
The real work in the music business is in the live performances. This is where the real paydays should be anyway. I am a seasons subscriber to the Boston Lyric Opera and have been for years. Most of the music performed at the Opera is in the public domain. If other artists would see the opera artform as a model of the future, where all music art becomes pretty much in the public domain as soon as people start sharing it with each other, then they would see the only money to be made is in the live performances anyway. There is a reason why an artform where all the art is in the public domain isn’t dead and that’s because you can’t replace the experience of the live performance with anything you can burn on cd.
Fred,
Most CD’s are made at a loss and the real money is made on the concerts.
In the information business, people think it’s a high margin high profit product, but most of the money is spent on customer acquisition and the real business comes from seminars, subscriptions and back-end stuff.
In the movie industries, most movies lose money running in the theaters and get into the black from DVD sales.
That said, the amount of piracy and illegal downloading that goes on does serious damage to the availability of new music. If you’re U2 you can go on a worldwide tour and make $100 million. But if you’re a smaller artist – one that’s just big enough to have a contract with a record label – a worldwide tour may not be feasible. Your fans are spread too thin to make a significant amount of money in each city. If people could pay for your music but don’t…. then you just won’t make it.
Which is to say, make it a practice of paying for your music. That money does buy you something in the long run, even if you could get it free. Yes, Beethoven’s 5th symphony is in the public domain and it’s awesome, but if you want more music, you get it a lot faster if somebody pays for it.
Wow! Thanks Perry for the always intriguing insight of Perry Marshallville! I think you are right on as usual. Glad good books will never disappear!
Paula McKinney
9.a
80/20 prediction that Perry will realize that Random Mutations are part of the process of evolution and are NOT evolution itself. :)
The 80/20 rule predicts that this is the year this will happen since the 4 previous years he didn’t get to that conclusion yet. Now it has to happen!!
Fantastic list Perry.
I predict that internet marketing will become a popular degree course in universities around the world.
If the courses aren’t taught by entrepreneurs, they won’t be all that good, tho…. :^>
Ye, and what probably will happen soon also, is that when the real IM entrepreneurs (that stand out the average Joe) that really ‘own’ the knowledge, will get high targeted by their local country universities to teach. Now, I don’t know why anyone in this world doing 7 figures, will accept nickels to teach in a Public University. But , but… You never know.
Hi Maurice
I’m in the UK and last summer I participated in a Graduate scheme to allow under-graduates to gain work experience in a real Internet Marketing environment.
I interviewed Marketing undergraduates, and I could not believe how little they were being taught about online marketing. Almost nothing.
Similarly, my son’s IT class at school teaches the kids how to operate computers, but not how they work, how to programme them or design applications, or even how to use them beyond Word, Excel and Powerpoint and Internet search.
However, I think you’re right that this will change. Carnegie Mellon University now offers a Masters Degree in Entertainment Technology, an inter-disciplinary degree offering students a wide range of studies including programming, business studies and marketing. In his book “A Whole New Mind”, Daniel Pink predicts that this degree will grow to be more important than an MBA or an MFA.
Let’s hope so.
I’m currently 3/4ths of my way through a Master’s Degree in Internet Marketing. Yes, there are certainly things I’ve learned from entrepreneurs “on the streets” that you don’t get in the University. However, I’ll say there are TONS of things I’ve learned thus far that I haven’t heard ANY of the inetrepreneurs talking about or doing. The biggest thing to me is the reading and required reading. I’m reading on average 2-4 books per month and they are ALL excellent readings.
Hi Perry,
Great Post, and I surely sign it below. Topic 9 specially caught my attention and I Sensed a bit of skepticism from you on the “The intellectual Berlin Wall of 19th century Darwinism will crack in 2013. A 21st century version of evolution is coming, one that doesn’t sneer at religion.”
I am also curious (probably not the best word) about it. Great minds predicted great changes around this dates and the impact in the evolution of the human race and the future behavior of the species that directly affects us all.
Like you posted before, looking at the last 10 years I am also thankful. Word that unfortunately we all should use more often.
All the best and please don’t stop…Like ‘exceptional magazines and books’ you will never disapear.
Thank you
José
Thank-You for your incredible contribution to so many of us. I have seen that sign in Georgia. I think it cool Perry.
Well done Perry.
I will add to your list from a wellness perspective.
People will become more aware of the unhealthy food they have been told is healthy. They will choose to become vegetarians without dairy or vegans. The trend to buy local at farmers markets will continue to expand.
I just want to comment on the Kindle gift…I love my Kindle. For me it has made absorbing information 100X more efficient.
In my opinion, the Kindle should be on everybody’s list who is involved in Internet Marketing. I’ve read dozens of ebooks from my Kindle. Downloading from your pc to the handheld unit is a snap. These ebooks would still be sitting on my desktop gathering dust if not for the Kindle.
On the Kindle note I have a prediction:
In no time will start displaying Google adds.. LoL :)
José
Hi Perry, I always find your postings insightful and relevant I’m planning to make this year a productive and rewarding one and I know the resources that you provide will be a factor toward that end. Keep up the good work and I wish you and your family a happy and prosperous New Year.
Your point number 4 about newspapers is a bad omen. We need a diversity of real news feeds. Every independent newspaper working on their own without the influence of larger News Media have unique and varying reports.
Newspapers if they are all aligned in which case they are can be used to sway mass opinions in their way.
It is like saying lets do away with 2 party system and just have only one. This is like saying get rid of all the parties and let the Politicians elect one from amongst themselves (in my opinion they do this anyway).
Ta!
Jon,
Well that’s exactly the problem with most newspapers. It’s all groupthink and political correctness. There’s not enough independent thinking. If there were, they wouldn’t be doing so bad.
I think prediction #8 is way off, because the Internet is still all about organic search and high rankings, and a CMS pales in comparison to an html site in this regard. About the only thing a CMS site IS good for is ease of use. From a code and SEO end, most are pure crap.
Good stuff Perry. You’re on to something.
Regarding prediction #9:
I’m familiar with your Lucent preso and let me say that I’d pay money to listen to a conversation between you and Christopher Hitchens.
But I digress…
My background gives me a particular appreciation for what you’re saying. My dad was a Protestant minister so I grew up in an observant Christian home. Later, I converted to Judaism and have lead an observant Jewish life for nearly all my adult life. I am also a certified network engineer and certified technical trainer of network engineering. The 7 layer OSI model is tattooed on my left shoulder. Actually that last part isn’t true, but it might as well be. As a result, I have no problem believing in science AND religion.
So here’s the thing…
When you say “All codes we know the origin of are created by a conscious mind. Therefore DNA was designed by a mind, and language and information are proof of the action of a Superintelligence” it reminds me of some of the things Carl Sagan talked about. His book “Contact” (skip the movie) delved into the same territory as you. I’m sure you’ve read it; if not, you should.
But here’s the thing that I can’t decide:
The Bible says that God created us in his image. Is it equally possible that we’ve created God in our image?
But wait, there’s more…
Is it simply the case that humans are a zygote’s way of making more zygotes?
Have we created God in our own image? Absolutely. The Swiss theologian Karl Barth said that square one of understanding God that God is wholly “Other” and that we must always be careful to worship God and not merely our idea of God.
I need to add “Contact” to my reading list.
Yes, we have very similar backgrounds. My dad was a minister too. And yes, when you understand things like the 7 Layer Model, you instinctively know that evolution HAS to be a process that’s driven top-down, not bottom-up.
Is it equally possible that we’ve created God in our image?
It’s not possible if you worship the God of the Bible. This is only possible if you “unplug” your beliefs from the Bible. Then you’re “free” to create your own god, at your peril of course.
I agree with most but I think you are selling Twitter short.
Twitter stands on its own and may even be bigger than Google in the long run.
Bigger than Google? No way!
http://www.97thfloor.com/blog/twitter-the-most-important-website-since-google/
I love twitter too, but…
Is getting full of junk. On another side (I dont have any commission on this) I am actually paying attention to another similar site, who seems to be ( for now ) a more selected ‘resort’ where I’m getting more results at the moment. I reckon will grow high too… identi.ca it is.
I think you are spot on with these predictions. I especially hope the high and mighty Google will let us have our accounts back.
I think you’re right about the music biz. Tommy Lee is making a record that allows fans to submit their own riffs. It’s called “The Public Record”. I suppose you could call it a sort of Wiki-Album.
If other musicians want to be successful, they will take a close look at what Tommy is doing with his Methods of Mayhem group. Pretty revolutionary.
It’s all theoretical anyway, because the world is going to end on December 21st, 2012 with John Cusack dodging meteors and earthquakes. :)
That you must join the game or get left behind. Industries that have individuals not generating at least portion of their business from the Internet will be forced to change careers entirely.
Change will be constant and we must use the community here at Planet Perry to stay ahead of the game rather than get caught in the wake.
Great post Perry, some great ideas. Think you are on the mark on most. Happy New Years to you and your family.
Perry – I think you’re WAY off base on #2 and you seem to think Twitter is still a fad. It’s here to say. Let’s revisit this in a year but i think it will continue to experience significant growth in 2010 and beyond…
I like Twitter a lot actually, I use it and I think it’s here to stay. And yes it will grow. But it’s not worth billions, in my opinion.
Well Perry
I was your fan for more than 8 years, but seeing that you have made a donation to the Wikipedia, now I hate you.
I hate the Wikipedia because it is number one in Google for most search results.
Happy New Year
That’s because wikipedia is quality and relevant information. Long-term (and probably even short-term), your best strategy is to create relevant content for your website. “SEO optimization” should come second.
But the Wikipedia gets first search engine rankings for a lot of super competitive terms because they leverage the high pagerank for their new pages.
I could add one prediction: Affiliate marketing for digital products will be much more difficult than producing your own product. Why? Because I have seeing that everyone is starting to give away bonuses for the purchase which are by themselves digital products. This is the irony, affiliate marketing with digital products was supposed to be easier because you don’t have to create a product? Now you must add a product as a bonus or the competition will kill you.
As a web designer who has developed static web sites for the last 10 years (and still do for small sites)I’ve had to learn how to convert/customize html sites into database-driven Content Management Sites.
My local newspapers are also disappearing..no sports sections…ugh!
Thanks for predictions.
I wish you and your family well in 2010
Perry,
Well said and great predictions. Times change in a hurry don’t they? I remember when safe lists, free classified ads, email blasters and geocities were the talk of the town!
Hope you have a fantastic year my friend.
Peter Dunbar